This is Shai’s first season running an NBA offense without training wheels. Chris Paul is not walking through that door. Shai has to toggle between facilitating and scoring, all while being the focal point of the opponent’s defensive gameplan. It’s a tall task for a 22-year-old. Amazingly, his counting stats and shooting percentages have improved across the board this season. How has he done it?
With relentless rim attacks. He leads the league with 25 drives per game. Despite his frame, he’s physical. He propels his body into defenders to find the direct lines to the basket and draws fouls. Check out how he picks up the ball low and swings his arms through to earn free throws.
Defenses can’t keep him out of the paint, and Shai doesn’t have the explosiveness to finish over shot-blocking bigs. The result: Shai relies on his craftiness to score inside. The variety and unpredictability of his forays to the rim make him a fun player to watch. Here he decelerates while the help defender flies by. Notice how he uses his off arm to “swim” past his defender.
His arms are as long as his name – and he uses his length to sneak shots in before defenders can get off the ground to contest. Here, he is able to stretch out for the inside hand layup after deceptively changing pace and direction to open up space.
The Thunder’s most common play type is the side pick and roll with Shai attacking the middle of the floor. But Shai doesn’t need a screen partner to dance into the lane. He’s fourth in the league in isolation frequency. Watch the power and agility he unleashes to dislodge and then glide past Kevin Durant for the up and under step-through banker.
In the clip, he showcases the skills that make him such a prolific penetrator: the slick handle, the baffling change of pace, the rapid change of direction, and the craftiness to get the shot up when the defender reaches in.
Shai doesn’t have tunnel vision — he passes on 47% of his drives. Typically, he comes to a complete stop, sucking in the defense, before delivering the ball to a teammate. Here (in isolation, by the way) the defensive rotations are on point, but Shai manipulates the weakside defender into closing out to the wing, leaving the corner shooter open for a higher percentage shot.
Don’t be Shai
On defense, Shai’s inactive. His motor runs, but it’s in first gear. He guards non-threatening players, but when he’s forced to defend, it’s clear that he’s in his third year in the league. He jumps on pump fakes against mediocre shooters and slams into picks when navigating screens. Still, opposing teams don’t target him. And when he turns up his activity, his 7’ wingspan shuts passing windows and harasses ball handlers. Here his high active hands pick Durant clean.
Shai avoids physicality. When he switches in the post, he sacrifices safe, positional defense between the defender and the basket to pursue steals. Perhaps this is the best solution — he’s not stoning anyone down low at a playing weight of 180 pounds with a high center of gravity.
On the ball, he reaches when he should move his feet. Instead of chasing over screens and staying attached to ball handlers, he tries to poke the ball away from the behind. Here, it works, but he gives up plenty of open midrange jumpers with this same gamble.
He rebounds well defensively but doesn’t use these opportunities to launch fastbreak assaults. With his handle and change of pace, he should be more of a weapon in transition. For now, he’s an opportunist, forging ahead when the opposing big man is lagging behind.
What will make SGA All-NBA?
Improvement in the NBA is never linear, but Shai’s career has been the exception. His stats and his efficiency have gone up every year in tandem with his increased offensive burden. His shot selection has helped. This season, he’s exchanging midrange jumpers for shots at the rim and 3’s — firing a career-high five attempts per game — which loosen up defenses packed tight to protect the paint.
His ability to get to the rim makes him a nightmare to switch against and even harder to defend in single coverage. Guards can barely keep him out of the lane, let alone clumsy bigs. When he beats the initial defender, he needs to get more comfortable manipulating defenses and throwing passes on the move ahead of scrambling rotations.
Shai reminds me of Devin Booker — another score-first guard who has accumulated individual statistical success. Their playing styles are different, but they are both learning that efficient scoring is not enough to take a team to the playoffs — Booker has four seasons of averaging 20 plus points and zero playoff appearances.
Expectations are low for the Thunder now, but as young, unproven talent fills out the roster, Shai will have to round out his game. He can produce points, but to produce wins, he needs to play with consistent defensive energy, anticipate opportunities as a playmaker, and wreak havoc with his length and off-ball hustle. Given his ascent in his first three seasons from bench player to the best player on a team, these improvements seem within reach. The Thunder's future may be cloudy, but with Shai, they have their star.